Market Update: Week Ending March 24th

Markets notched a positive week against a backdrop of continued financial sector worries and another 0.25% interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The European banking crisis spread to Deutsche Bank as shares fell the furthest Friday in almost 3 years even though Deutsche Banks appears on the surface to be a much healthier bank than its Swiss competitor, Credit Suisse, due to a recent strategic overhaul of the bank. While the market appears confident that the Federal Reserve is close to ending its tightening cycle, maintaining high interest rates will be restrictive to economic growth. Continued concerns surrounding the US banking system may also lead to tighter bank lending underwriting, which may also inhibit growth through slow loan growth. In terms of stock market performance, the US financial sector has underperformed since the beginning of March and the financial sector index is near its October 2022 lows.

Below are the results for last week, March MTD, and 2023 YTD.

Index Daily Returns (Jan. 30th - Feb. 3rd) Weekly February 2023
Mon. Tues. Wed. Thurs. Fri. Return Return Return
S&P 500 –0.14% +1.65% –0.63% +1.75% –1.17% –1.44% –1.21% +2.36%
NASDAQ 100 –0.14% +1.65% –0.63% +1.75% –1.17% –1.44% –1.21% +2.36%
Dow Jones 30 –0.14% +1.65% –0.63% +1.75% –1.17% –1.44% –1.21% +2.36%
Developed Non-US –0.14% +1.65% –0.63% +1.75% –1.17% –1.44% –1.21% +2.36%
Emerging Markets –0.14% +1.65% –0.63% +1.75% –1.17% –1.44% –1.21% +2.36%
Core Bonds –0.14% +1.65% –0.63% +1.75% –1.17% –1.44% –1.21% +2.36%

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes

Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met and raised the US federal funds rate 0.25%. Importantly, some key text in the Committee’s written statement has been changed to remove “ongoing increases” to “some additional policy firming” when discussing possible future rate increases. Chairman Powell also acknowledged in his comments following the meeting that recent events in the banking system would most likely result in tighter credit conditions and that was why the central bank’s tone had softened. This would imply that the rate hike, absent a banking crisis, would have been 0.50% due to recent inflation data and the strength of the labor market.

Home Sales

Existing home sales exploded in February, up 14.5% when compared to January, due to lower mortgage rates and was the first monthly gain in 12 months. Existing home sales are based on closings so these contracts were most likely signed in late December and January when mortgage rates were lower. Annualized home sales are now estimated to be 4.58 million, but February sales remain 22% lower when compared to last February. New home sales in February rose 1.1% versus an estimated drop of -3.0%. New home sales are based on signed contracts so the better than expected number of new homes sold is likely attributable to the lower mortgage rates in the early part of February as rates rose into the end of the month.

Earnings Reports

Below are the recent corporate earnings reports.

Company Industry Sales Profits Comments
Lennar Housing Beat Beat Deliveries of homes up but new orders down.
Lennar Housing Beat Beat Deliveries of homes up but new orders down.
Lennar Housing Beat Miss Deliveries of homes up but new orders down.
Lennar Housing Beat Miss Deliveries of homes up but new orders down.

Up Next

Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met and raised the US federal funds rate 0.25%. Importantly, some key text in the Committee’s written statement has been changed to remove “ongoing increases” to “some additional policy firming” when discussing possible future rate increases. Chairman Powell also acknowledged in his comments following the meeting that recent events in the banking system would most likely result in tighter credit conditions and that was why the central bank’s tone had softened. This would imply that the rate hike, absent a banking crisis, would have been 0.50% due to recent inflation data and the strength of the labor market.

Something Completely Different

Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met and raised the US federal funds rate 0.25%. Importantly, some key text in the Committee’s written statement has been changed to remove “ongoing increases” to “some additional policy firming” when discussing possible future rate increases. Chairman Powell also acknowledged in his comments following the meeting that recent events in the banking system would most likely result in tighter credit conditions and that was why the central bank’s tone had softened. This would imply that the rate hike, absent a banking crisis, would have been 0.50% due to recent inflation data and the strength of the labor market.


2023-03-30T23:05:16+00:00
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