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Below are the results for last week, March MTD, and 2023 YTD.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that February prices rose 0.4% which was in line with analyst expectations. Twelve-month CPI came in at 6.0% which is also in line with expectations. When food and energy are excluded, core CPI rose 0.5% in February and 5.5% for the 12-month period. The monthly reading of 0.5% was slightly hotter than the expected result of 0.4%. Falling energy prices helped keep inflation in check while shelter costs rose 0.8% in February. Shelter costs, especially rent, are a lagging indicator of inflation as these costs typically take 6 months or more to be reflected in the CPI numbers.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that February prices rose 0.4% which was in line with analyst expectations. Twelve-month CPI came in at 6.0% which is also in line with expectations. When food and energy are excluded, core CPI rose 0.5% in February and 5.5% for the 12-month period. The monthly reading of 0.5% was slightly hotter than the expected result of 0.4%. Falling energy prices helped keep inflation in check while shelter costs rose 0.8% in February. Shelter costs, especially rent, are a lagging indicator of inflation as these costs typically take 6 months or more to be reflected in the CPI numbers.

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US import prices fell 0.1% in February versus a 0.4% decline in January as lower fuel prices more than offset higher nonfuel prices. Over a twelve period, US import prices fell 1.1% which is the first yearly decline since 2020. Most of the lower fuel prices were due to much lower natural gas prices which more than offset higher oil prices.

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US export prices increased 0.2% in February following a 0.5% advance in January. Over the twelve-month period, US export prices declined 0.8% which is the first 12 month decline since 2019. Agricultural prices continue to see higher export prices which more than offset declining meat prices.

Earnings Reports

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We have moved to a tabular summary of corporate earnings reports going forward.

Up Next

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Investors will be focused on the Federal Reserve meeting this week and where interest rates are headed. Other news this week includes existing home sales for February, new home sales for February and durable goods orders for February. Corporate earnings include Nike, Chewy, Accenture and General Mills.

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Something Completely Different

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The US banking system saga continues as the Federal Reserve, along with the Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and the Swiss Bank, moved to ease fears regarding US dollar availability by increasing the frequency of currency movement across country borders to daily, up from weekly. These “swaps” allow foreign banks to borrow US dollars by handing over to the Federal Reserve a similar amount of local currency as collateral. These “loans” took place weekly, now they are providing daily swaps. The swap function allows the Federal Reserve to make sure that banks and companies outside of the US have access to US dollars.

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This is a liquidity operation as banks may be tightening loan underwriting to avoid losing their own cash reserves that they would normally use to meet unexpected withdrawals. Illiquidity in the markets can cause economic volatility through higher cost loans or downright unavailability. Similar actions were taken in March 2020 and November 2008 as a total aversion to risk caused illiquidity issues globally due to the pandemic and the Lehman Brothers failure. This swap expansion follows the Swiss government forcing UBS to acquire the ailing Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse bank has been a problem since the Great Financial Crisis.

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Sunday is always the day where pundits and politicians take to the Sunday morning news shows to armchair quarterback topics many of them have little real understanding. While a couple of US politicians pointed to Jay Powell specifically, our Federal Reserve chairman, as the culprit there is a growing chorus of negativity due to so-called lax regulatory oversight. You can’t blame the politicos as they take their shots since the CEO of Silicon Valley Bank was on the board of the San Francisco Federal Reserve. No one expects resignations at this point as the financial system needs no more cause to be more volatile at this time, but I am sure Congressional inquiries are top of the list.

We will keep you updated on this and all the latest economic news in the coming weeks. We encourage you to contact us via email, phone or in person regarding any questions that you may have about these emails and your portfolio.

Regards,

Marc Wilborn, FSA, AIF^®

Financial Advisor

M: (+1) 913.963.1054 | O: (+1) 913.827.9957

E: marc.wilborn@vwealth.com

Emily Wilborn

Investment Analyst

M: (+1) 913.832.2100

E: emily.wilborn@vwealth.com

6800 College Blvd., Suite 630, Overland Park, KS 66211

www.wilbornadvisors.com

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